Textual data are often collected alongside structured response variables, but prediction and interpretation are commonly treated as separate tasks. This paper studies rating prediction as an initial case of interpretable text-response modelling, where the aim is to learn textual representations that are both semantically meaningful and aligned with an external response. We propose a joint non-negative matrix factorisation and binomial regression model, in which the document-topic representation is learned from both text reconstruction and rating prediction. Simulation experiments and a real-world review dataset show that the model can recover stable response-relevant textual signals and achieve competitive performance against linear and ridge regression baselines. The framework provides a practical step towards interpretable modelling of text-linked outcomes, with potential extensions to other response types beyond bounded ratings.

Estimators in statistics and machine learning must typically trade off between efficiency, having low variance for a fixed target, and distributional robustness, such as multiaccuracy, or having low bias over a range of possible targets. In this paper, we consider a simple estimator, ridge boosting: starting with any initial predictor, perform a single boosting step with (kernel) ridge regression. Surprisingly, we show that ridge boosting simultaneously achieves both efficiency and distributional robustness: for target distribution shifts that lie within an RKHS unit ball, this estimator maintains low bias across all such shifts and has variance at the semiparametric efficiency bound for each target. In addition to bridging otherwise distinct research areas, this result has immediate practical value. Since ridge boosting uses only data from the source distribution, researchers can train a single model to obtain both robust and efficient estimates for multiple target estimands at the same time, eliminating the need to fit separate semiparametric efficient estimators for each target. We assess this approach through simulations and an application estimating the age profile of retirement income.

This paper examines the performance of ridge regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces in the presence of noise that exhibits a finite number of higher moments. We establish excess risk bounds consisting of subgaussian and polynomial terms based on the well known integral operator framework. The dominant subgaussian component allows to achieve convergence rates that have previously only been derived under subexponential noise--a prevalent assumption in related work from the last two decades. These rates are optimal under standard eigenvalue decay conditions, demonstrating the asymptotic robustness of regularized least squares against heavy-tailed noise. Our derivations are based on a Fuk-Nagaev inequality for Hilbert-space valued random variables.

Understanding how the test risk scales with model complexity is a central question in machine learning. Classical theory is challenged by the learning curves observed for large over-parametrized deep networks. Capacity measures based on parameter count typically fail to account for these empirical observations. To tackle this challenge, we consider norm-based capacity measures and develop our study for random features based estimators, widely used as simplified theoretical models for more complex networks. In this context, we provide a precise characterization of how the estimator's norm concentrates and how it governs the associated test error. Our results show that the predicted learning curve admits a phase transition from under-to over-parameterization, but no double descent behavior. This confirms that more classical U-shaped behavior is recovered considering appropriate capacity measures based on models norms rather than size. From a technical point of view, we leverage deterministic equivalence as the key tool and further develop new deterministic quantities which are of independent interest.

Interpreting machine-learning models has attracted increasing attention, particularly in the physical sciences, where one often seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms rather than merely make predictions. Multiple linear regression is often regarded as an interpretable alternative to more complex models, such as deep neural networks, because its predictions are expressed as explicit weighted sums of input features. However, when input features are strongly correlated, namely in the presence of multicollinearity, the learned weights can exhibit large dataset-to-dataset fluctuations and oscillatory behavior across physically similar features, making their interpretation difficult or even impossible. Although the instability of the weights under multicollinearity is well known in statistics, its consequences for physical interpretation, in particular its connection to oscillatory weights across physically similar features, have not been systematically clarified. Here, we theoretically discuss the mechanism behind this loss of interpretability by analyzing the eigenmodes of the feature correlation matrix. We show that small-eigenvalue modes associated with multicollinearity amplify fluctuations in the weights and generate oscillatory patterns that do not necessarily reflect meaningful contributions. We test this theoretical picture numerically on physics datasets and show that Ridge regularization suppresses these unstable modes, although the resulting weights must still be interpreted with caution. We further confirm the generality of our findings beyond physics by analyzing a diverse collection of publicly available datasets. Our results clarify why, in the presence of multicollinearity, physical interpretation can remain difficult even for linear regression models.

Efficient benchmarking techniques aim to lower the computational cost of evaluating LLMs by predicting full benchmark scores using only a subset of a benchmark's questions. By reframing this problem as an instance of multiple regression with feature selection, we find that existing efficient benchmarking methods can be greatly improved by simply using kernel ridge regression at the prediction stage. Additionally, using an information-theoretic feature-selection algorithm called minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), we can further improve upon these methods by selecting question subsets that will be maximally useful for prediction. Except in very data-poor settings, these approaches consistently achieve smaller prediction errors (in both MAE and RMSE), and greater ranking correlation between predicted and true scores (in both Spearman $ρ$ and Kendall $τ$) across a range of benchmarks using both binary and continuous metrics. Furthermore, mRMR subsampling is much faster than competitor methods (which often involve fitting probabilistic models or running clustering algorithms), and is more likely to select the same questions under different random seeds or training data splits. Tutorial code can be found at https://github.com/sambowyer/mrmr_eval .

Self-distillation has emerged as a promising technique for improving model performance in modern machine learning systems. We develop the statistical foundations of self-distillation in spiked covariance models, by introducing and analyzing a broad class of estimators, namely spectral shrinkage estimators. We establish that for spiked covariance matrices with $s$ spikes, $s$-step self-distillation achieves optimal performance among spectral shrinkage estimators, outperforming well-known estimators in statistics and machine learning. Moreover, we show that $s$ steps are necessary for optimality: any $(s-k)$-step distilled estimator is strictly suboptimal for $1 \leq k \leq s$. For the special subclass of isotropic covariances, we show that optimally tuned Ridge regression performs best among spectral shrinkage estimators. We also study a federated approach where multiple data centers share spectral shrinkage estimators and a common server seeks to aggregate them to achieve optimal performance. In this case, we find that the best local rule again takes the form of self-distillation, though it differs from the optimal rule when data are hosted centrally on a single server. Together, our results elucidate why self-distillation improves predictive performance and provide a broader statistical framework connecting it with classical shrinkage-based methods.

We study theoretical properties of a broad class of regularized algorithms with vector-valued output. These spectral algorithms include kernel ridge regression, kernel principal component regression and various implementations of gradient descent.

Existing large-dimensional theory for spectral algorithms resolves either the optimally tuned point or the interpolation limit, but leaves the under-regularized regime unexplored. We study the learning curve and benign overfitting of spectral algorithms in the largedimensional setting where the sample size and dimension are of comparable order, i.e., n dγ for some γ > 0. We first consider inner-product kernels on the sphere Sd 1 and establish a sharp asymptotic characterization of the excess risk across the full regularization path under various source conditions s 0, where smeasures the relative smoothness of the regression function. Our results reveal that the learning curve is not simply U-shaped but instead consists of three distinct regimes: over-regularized, under-regularized, and interpolation regimes. This characterization allows us to fully capture the benign overfitting phenomenon, demonstrating that benign overfitting arises consistently across both the under-regularized and interpolation regimes whenever sis positive but no larger than a critical threshold. We further show that, in the sufficiently regularized regime, the kernel learning curve is recovered by an associated sequence model. Finally, we extend the learning-curve analysis to large-dimensional KRR for a class of kernels on general domains in Rd whose low-degree eigenspaces satisfy spectral-scaling and hyper-contractivity conditions. Keywords: Spectral algorithms, learning curves, high dimension, benign overfitting. 1 Introduction Nonparametric regression studies the estimation of an unknown function f: Rd R from ni.i.d.